Sunday 28 October 2012

Characteristics of a Bubble


1. A convincing idea, concept, or product. With potentials of rapid growth, and unlimited wealth


2. There are lots of excess capital in the market, or hot money "artificially created" through certain channel or policy. Once those capitals are all focused in this area, it will grow like a snow ball.


3. The idea must be simple but yet complicated. It has to be so simple until every ordinary people thinks it is a good idea, but yet it has to be complicated enough to have hard facts and data to prove it wrong


4. There are people start making money from the idea. The most attractive thing to the public is quick and easy money. It spreads even faster than virus.


5. When the bubble grows to certain extend, there will be lots of experts who come out to support and promote the bubble. Those experts are typically iconic figure, representing wisdom, authority, role model. The public believes they are modelling the highly successful people.


6. The duration of the bubble growth will last longer than expected. Those who initially pointed the danger of bubble burst will be taunted and laughed when the bubble is growing bigger.


7. It bursts.


Bubbles are well known in stock market. It happened and will happen again. However, bubble is not only limited to stock market, it can happen to anything: flower, stamps, watches, wine, oil, property, land, stones, gold, silver...as long as it is able to trigger GREED

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