Wednesday 26 September 2012

Windows 8 and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)

http://windows.microsoft.com/en-US/windows-8/release-preview

Windows 8 is expected to launch in end October. After so many rounds of Windows upgrade, this seems to the most revolutionary and probably most ambitious.

It's a platform to cater for all hardware from smart phones, tablets, laptop PCs...everything.
In short, it covers ARM based and x86 based products. It comes with a Windows RT version
In one single platform, it can support touch and mouse control.
It can switch between 2 interface: a touched based interface more suitable for smaller gadgets like smartphones and tablets, and mouse based interface which is more towards what we have today, and it is meant for more commercial and heavier work.

The intention is very clear: To cover every area and extend it's domination. Past few years smartphones and tablets had been growing extremely fast, a term "Death of PC" are commonly heard. Actually it is implying The Death of Windows. This was an area Windows left out passed few years.

The term "Death of PC" sounds exaggerated. If we are to remove all Windows product from the world from now on, the world will collapse. It's serious. If we think carefully, all our daily activities are directly and indirectly supported by Windows based PC. If we are to remove all iOS and Android based products from now on, life will still go on as it only affects some of your leisure activities. Worst thing would be those tech fans will cry for a few days, but then you can go purchase other OS (Windows, Blackberry) gadgets to continue with you mobile surfing, gaming, and social networking. 

Tablets don't allow you to do much things except for leisure and communication purpose, but Wintel based laptops are lack of the Cool factor of tablets. So here's how current market works: most consumers still own a Wintel based laptops as usual (as they still need to work, and can't live without it), and yet purchase another tablet for leisure purpose and to look COOL.

If I am a consumer, this might make me think twice before I spend money on another Android or iOS tablet. For necessity, I will still own a Windows product - it could be a hybrid product: A x86 processor tablet with  laptop performance attached to separate keyboard and supports mouse. It can be used as a laptop or tablet depends on my need. Do I still have good reason to buy another tablet, since I already have one? Even if I justify myself to buy another extra tablet which is smaller and less powerful for leisure purpose, I can still chose between Win8, iOS and Android. So far, SURFACE and Samsung Win8 tablet look Cool.

So here might be the vision of Msft:

1. First, defend the fortress of PC - tell the world that PC (Wintel) will not die. It will evolve to something even stronger. I want all Wintel to remain powerful or even better, and now friendly for touch screen application

2. Launch a massive counter attack to tablet market. Now I am Cool enough for smaller tablet, while having the functions and versatility of wintel laptop

3. Then penetrate into Smartphones area. If number 2 starts to work well, now Cooler Windows 8 phone might look attractive, as it has good interoperability with my Wintel tablets or laptop.          

DANG DANG DANG.

Sensitive and greedy investors already started to figure out the share price of MSFT in relation to the new Windows 8.

FACTS:
For so many years until now: Revenue, profit, EPS, DPS had been an almost perfect growth pattern.
Operating margin remain solid and high.
Balance Sheet: Cash and Debt level excellently managed at very healthy level

For punters, the price pattern had been very boring. Company growth and profitability remain positive. At current price of $30, this translates into PE of 15, which means it is not at super bargain price. But again, we have to consider the EPS growth in future. Dividend yield is 3+%, looks OK but not impressive for Malaysia and Singapore standard.

You may refer to Morningstar.com to retrieve further details:
http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=MSFT&region=USA&culture=en-us



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