Thursday, 6 September 2012

Contrarian behaviour of KLCI

This is about how KLCI behaved, especially in year 2012. In simple words, it is a "contrarian" relative to regional markets.
Everyday at 5.30pm, you open up any finance website with a list of Asia stock market indices, you will find out:

1. If all markets are very GREEN, KLCI will be a little GREEN (0.1 to 0.2% will do)
2. If all markets are very RED, KLCI will also be a little GREEN, or occasionally a little RED (0.1 to 0.2% will do)

In general, it inches up a little by a little, regardless of what happened outside Malaysia, this is as if it is supported by an UNSEEN FORCE UNDERNEATH (what is that actually???). This matches the popular theory of Malaysia's economy and stock market are immune to external factors as we have strong internal play.

This is an interesting phenomenon to watch. Undeniably, Malaysia stock market is much less volatile compare to other regional bourses  such as Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore which can easily fluctuate 1 to 2% daily. Malaysia market typically fluctuate less than 0.5% daily, and it doesn't allow shorting. It is very unusual to see more than 1% daily fluctuation.

This has to link with my previous post of  "Missed the boat, Chase the boat, or Leave the boat" which mentioned KLCI had just reached historical high at the region of 1645-1650. So something unusual was observed last 2 days, where KLCI has made more than 1% drop for 2 consecutive days, while all other Asia markets are stably GREEN. From a bullish outlook at 1655, suddenly it is at 1617 which is said to be testing the 1600 support.

Ofcourse, I see mixed view from different forums where one side claim this to be perfect opportunity to enter while another side shows view of bearishness.

Not sure where it is heading to in near term, but THE KLCI BEHAVIOUR IS STRANGE WHICH WE SHOULD TAKE NOTE.

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